Market Overview
Dogecoin (DOGE) extended its recent decline for a second consecutive session as large-scale sell-offs from major holders weighed on prices, overshadowing optimism around a potential U.S. spot Dogecoin ETF launch. Despite growing institutional interest, technical indicators continue to signal a fragile market structure dominated by bearish momentum.
Bitwise Asset Management confirmed that its spot Dogecoin ETF could go live within the next 20 days under the SEC’s Section 8(a) automatic-approval provision, assuming no regulatory objections. The development follows the successful debut of new SOL, LTC, and HBAR ETFs, signaling an accelerating institutional expansion into alternative crypto assets.
However, Grayscale also amended its own spot DOGE ETF filing, triggering a similar countdown period. The simultaneous filings highlight how the Section 8(a) pathway can fast-track listings without requiring explicit SEC approval, potentially ushering in the first-ever meme-coin ETF on Wall Street.
On-Chain and Whale Activity
Despite the positive headlines, on-chain data paints a more cautious picture. Over 1 billion DOGE (≈$440 million) were moved by whale wallets within the past 72 hours — marking the heaviest week of large-holder distribution since early October. Analysts note that these outflows coincide with a weakening technical setup, suggesting that whales are using ETF optimism as liquidity to offload holdings.
The data also shows a temporary decline in overall network transaction velocity, alongside a drop in derivative open interest, hinting at reduced speculative engagement.
Price Action Summary
DOGE fell 2.4% over the past 24 hours to close near $0.1631, after briefly breaking below the $0.167 support level. The token traded within a 6.4% intraday range, setting sequential lower highs for most of the session.
The sharpest sell-off occurred around 15:00 GMT, when volume surged to 793.4 million DOGE — roughly 150% above daily average — pushing the price to an intraday low of $0.1590. Multiple recovery attempts stalled near $0.1639, confirming persistent overhead resistance.
Late-session stabilization saw DOGE rebound from $0.1615 to $0.1631, with steady institutional re-entry evident as volume normalized at around 6.2 million DOGE per minute.
Technical Analysis
The session formed a breakdown-and-retest pattern, validating short-term bearish control while hinting at a potential base formation. Descending highs confirmed firm resistance near $0.1674, while buyers defended support around $0.1615.
Momentum indicators remain mixed:
- RSI hovered in the 38–42 range, recovering slightly from near-oversold conditions.
- MACD shows flattening momentum, implying that downside pressure may be slowing.
- Futures open interest dropped 12%, while funding rates turned negative on major exchanges like Binance — suggesting fading speculative appetite.
Volume distribution indicates heavy early-session liquidation followed by measured late-session accumulation, a typical precursor to short-term consolidation before a volatility breakout.
What Traders Should Watch
Market participants now focus on whether DOGE can sustain support between $0.1575 and $0.1615, while ETF-driven sentiment builds. A confirmed daily close above $0.1674 could flip near-term bias bullish, targeting $0.172–$0.180, where pre-breakdown supply resides.
Conversely, failure to defend $0.1575 risks a retest of the $0.15 psychological zone, which aligns with key on-chain cost-basis clusters.
The interplay between ETF headlines and whale movements will likely dictate price direction through mid-November. Sustained outflows from large holders could cap ETF-related optimism, while a reduction in selling pressure may open the door for renewed accumulation ahead of any official ETF launch confirmation.
Outlook
While institutional progress continues to validate Dogecoin’s growing maturity as an asset, short-term traders face a technically fragile environment. Until DOGE can reclaim the $0.1674–$0.1700 resistance band, rallies may remain corrective within a broader consolidation zone.
For now, ETF speculation remains the key near-term catalyst, but technical resilience will ultimately determine whether Dogecoin can convert sentiment into sustained upside momentum.
Read More: As SOL ETFs Surge Alchemy Rebuilds Solana Infrastructure for Institutional Scal
