Bitcoin’s blockchain is beginning to show signs of dramatic internal movement, even as the asset’s market price drifts sideways. An increasingly large number of long-inactive coins—assets that have sat untouched for many years—are now being spent, reallocated, or transferred at a scale previously unseen. This activity is fueling speculation among on-chain analysts that the current bull cycle may not be nearing its end, but rather entering a powerful second phase.
The key metric leading this conversation is liveliness, a long-term on-chain indicator that measures the balance between Bitcoin held in deep storage and Bitcoin being actively transacted. In recent weeks, liveliness has begun rising sharply—its strongest expansion since the early stages of the 2020–2021 bull run.
This movement has caught the attention of widely respected analysts, who argue that Bitcoin’s internal economy is showing significantly more strength than the price chart suggests.
A Rare Signal Dormant Bitcoin Suddenly Wakes Up
Across the network, coins that had previously remained unmoved since older market eras—some dating back to 2013 or earlier—have abruptly begun shifting. Analysts refer to these as dormant coins, and their reactivation is often seen during moments of major cyclical transition.
Under normal market conditions, Bitcoin’s most committed long-term holders (“HODLers”) are characterized by their reluctance to sell. They are known for sitting through volatility, deep bear markets, and prolonged periods of uncertainty. When these long-term holders begin to spend coins, something meaningful is usually underway.
This time, the scale is historic.
According to on-chain analysts, dormant supply reactivation over the past several weeks is larger and more synchronized than any period in Bitcoin’s 15-year existence.
“The velocity and age-weighted activity we’re seeing is unlike anything in prior cycles,” said one analyst.
“Even 2017’s frenzy looks small in comparison.”
What was once considered a rare signal of late-stage cycle behavior is now appearing even as market prices remain in consolidation.
Understanding the Liveliness Metric Bitcoin’s Heartbeat
To interpret why liveliness matters, it helps to understand how the indicator works.
Liveliness is calculated using:
Coin Days Created
Every day a coin remains unspent, it accumulates “coin days.” Long-term holders rack up huge amounts of coin days.
Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)
When a coin is spent, all its accumulated coin days are destroyed instantly.
Older coins destroy more coin days than younger ones.
Liveliness
This ratio determines whether long-term supply is increasing (accumulation) or decreasing (distribution).
- If liveliness rises, older coins are moving → long-term holders are distributing.
- If liveliness falls, old coins remain untouched → holders are accumulating.
In typical bull markets, liveliness climbs because investors who held through bearish or neutral conditions begin taking profit, redistributing supply to newer participants.
So why is today’s rise unusual?
Because price is not acting like it normally does when liveliness increases.
Price is flat.
Sentiment is lukewarm.
Yet long-term supply is suddenly active.
This divergence is why analysts are paying very close attention.
TXMC Liveliness is Rising Even While Price Is Drifting That’s Not Normal”
On-chain market analyst TXMC highlighted the unusual nature of the current pattern. He noted that rising liveliness typically aligns with strong price appreciation, as old supply moves to take advantage of higher valuations.
Today, however, the opposite is happening.
Bitcoin is range-bound between $86,000 and $92,000, yet liveliness is breaking upward.
“Liveliness has been marching higher despite lower prices,” TXMC said.
“That suggests steady underlying demand for spot Bitcoin, even while the broader market looks quiet and uncertain.”
According to him, the indicator is behaving as if Bitcoin is in the middle of a raging bull market—yet price has not caught up.
This creates a scenario where market participants may be misinterpreting the apparent lack of movement on the chart. Beneath the surface, powerful structural changes are potentially preparing for their ultimate impact on price.
Breaking Out of a Multi-Year Range
Glassnode data reveals that Bitcoin’s liveliness has now escaped the long-standing range it held through:
- The 2017 all-time-high
- The 2018–2020 bear market
- The 2020–2021 bull cycle
- The entire post-2021 consolidation period
This is not a small shift.
It is a decisive breakout from an eight-year pattern.
Glassnode lead analyst James Check argues that this breakout captures a historic reactivation of dormant supply.
“What we’re seeing now surpasses all prior cycles,” Check said.
“Dormant supply reactivation is happening at a scale that has no historical parallel.”
This includes coins that have been silent for:
- 5 years
- 7 years
- 10+ years
Coins from eras when Bitcoin was valued at:
- $200
- $1,000
- $5,000
are now moving at valuations near or above $90,000.
This suggests that extremely early adopters may be redistributing supply into modern market participants with vastly greater capital.
One of the Largest Capital Rotations in Bitcoin History
Check further noted the magnitude of value flowing through the network:
- In 2017, large transfers were often measured in millions of dollars.
- In today’s cycle, single reactivated wallets sometimes move billions.
The concept of coin days destroyed has exploded upward—a sign that old supply is not only moving, but moving in extremely large chunks.
“We have seen an extraordinary volume of coin days destroyed,” Check said.
“I am of the view that we just witnessed one of the greatest capital rotations in Bitcoin history.”
Capital rotation means ownership is changing:
- Early holders → Institutional holders
- Low-value coins → High-value markets
- Old wealth → New money
These transitions have historically preceded dramatic market expansions as new participants buy aggressively.
Why This Rotation Matters More Than Price Action
Bitcoin’s price is famously noisy, influenced by:
- Short-term traders
- Leverage
- Derivatives
- Market sentiment
- News cycles
On-chain data, however, reflects real economic behavior of the network’s deepest participants.
When long-term holders distribute supply, they typically do so at:
- Late bull markets
- Macro turning points
- High-confidence phases
If this sort of distribution were occurring at the end of the cycle, prices would be skyrocketing, not stalling.
The fact that price is stalled while massive internal structure shifts are underway suggests a delayed fuse—a setup where internal pressure builds before price eventually responds.
Many analysts believe this is happening now.
Price Remains Trapped in Range but Analysts See Signs of Bottoming
Despite the bullish on-chain story, Bitcoin’s market price remains quiet.
As of Sunday:
- BTC briefly dipped below $89,000
- It recovered to roughly $89,500
- Volatility remains muted
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe described current conditions as:
“A consolidation band with nothing but noise.”
He outlined two key scenarios:
Break Above $92,000 → Bullish Continuation
A break of this level could open the door to:
- $98,000
- $102,000
- New all-time-highs
Rejection and Retest of Low $80,000s → Bullish Double Bottom
A dip could form a structural base for the next leg up.
Van de Poppe believes Bitcoin is close to completing this bottoming structure.
“I don’t think we’re far off from bottoming,” he said.
“A stronger Q4 rally and even more momentum into Q1 is on the table.”
Signs of Seller Exhaustion Support the Case for a Rebound
Bitfinex’s latest market note also supports the idea that the worst may be behind the market.
The firm highlights:
- Major deleveraging across exchanges
- Capitulation among short-term holders
- Declining sell pressure
- Stabilizing funding rates
Combined, these indicate fading exhaustion among sellers.
“We are entering a stabilization phase,” Bitfinex wrote.
“A relief bounce is increasingly likely.”
This aligns with historical post-deleveraging patterns, where Bitcoin consolidates briefly before resuming upward momentum.
A Pattern That Suggests the Bull Market May Be Only Halfway Done
Taken together, the on-chain evidence presents a compelling story:
- Dormant supply is waking up
- Liveliness is surging to unprecedented levels
- Old coins are moving in billion-dollar quantities
- Capital is rotating from old holders to new buyers
- Price is consolidating in a historically bullish structure
- Short-term sellers have largely exited
In past cycles, these conditions have typically appeared in the middle, not the end, of bull markets.
If the pattern repeats, the market may be gearing up for its next major leg—one potentially stronger than the first half of the cycle.
Some analysts believe this cycle could resemble 2016–2017 or 2020–2021, where long stretches of sideways price movement preceded explosive gains.
Others argue that Bitcoin’s increasing institutional adoption means this cycle may be structurally larger and longer-lasting than any before it.
Conclusion A Quiet Market Hiding a Loud Signal
Despite the calm surface-level price action, Bitcoin’s internal metrics are flashing high-importance signals.
Liveliness is rising.
Long-term holders are awakening.
Massive supply is rotating.
Sellers are exhausted.
And analysts are increasingly confident that Bitcoin’s cycle is far from over.
While it remains impossible to predict exact timing, the on-chain picture is clear:
The Bitcoin network is reconfiguring beneath the surface—and historically, such reconfigurations have preceded powerful expansions.
The bull market may not be ending.
It may be recharging.
