Market Overview
Crypto markets are in another risk-off session, with Bitcoin sliding 3.5% over the past 24 hours to $103,893.56, approaching October lows. A further drop could bring the largest cryptocurrency to its lowest level since June.
The CoinDesk 20 Index is down 5%, while major altcoins like Ether ($3,494.29) and Solana ($161.80) also hit their lowest prices since August. Analysts point to a mix of factors driving the downturn: hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a strengthening U.S. dollar, and ongoing selling by long-term holders.
Market maker Wintermute noted, “Liquidity is expanding globally, yet capital isn’t reaching crypto. ETF inflows have stalled, DAT activity has dried up, and only stablecoins are still growing.”
Factors Behind the Bearish Trend
The bearish tone may also be linked to the Oct. 17 flash crash, which saw arbitrage strategies fail due to auto-deleveraging. Some firms could still be liquidating their remaining long spot positions, adding downward pressure on prices.
A major event shaking the market is the collapse of Stream Finance’s stablecoin, xUSD, which fell 80% to 30 cents following a $93 million loss attributed to an external fund manager. Stream Finance has hired Perkins Coie LLP to investigate, raising concerns about the broader DeFi ecosystem. Notably, lenders of xUSD are now earning over 500% daily interest, signaling potential liquidity stress in the protocol’s treasury.
Privacy Coins Rally
While the broader market struggles, privacy coins are seeing remarkable gains. Zcash (ZEC), Decred (DCR), and DASH have surged by as much as 200% in 24 hours, suggesting traders are seeking alternative havens amid market uncertainty.
Macro Influences
Macro developments continue to influence crypto sentiment. The U.S. dollar index has risen to 100, complicating Bitcoin’s path, while gold remains stable near $4,000 per ounce. Additionally, a recent surge in credit default swaps tied to Oracle indicates investor caution amid the company’s AI-related spending.
Upcoming Events to Watch
- Nov. 4: IoTeX (IOTX) Core v2.3.0 mainnet upgrade.
- Nov. 4, 12 p.m. UTC: THORChain (RUNE) mainnet v3.12.0 upgrade.
- Nov. 4, 10 a.m.: Sam Bankman-Fried appeals his fraud conviction.
- Nov. 4, 6:35 a.m.: Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speaks on bank supervision and monetary policy.
Altcoin Market Movements
- Altcoins like ASTER fell 18%, and XRP returned to key support levels.
- Solana (SOL) and Binance Coin (BNB) have fallen to fresh lows.
- Privacy coins such as XMR, ZEC, DCR, and DASH have outperformed, signaling trader rotation away from weaker market sectors.
Derivatives & Volatility
- Bitcoin’s implied volatility (BVIV) has risen following a golden cross of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, indicating potential for larger price swings.
- Positioning in ZEC remains elevated with high open interest, though funding rates suggest some traders are shorting futures.
- BTC and ETH futures on CME and Deribit show diverging trends, with ether options showing bullish bias after February 2026 expiry.
ETF Flows
- Spot BTC ETFs: Daily net outflows of $186.5 million; cumulative holdings ~1.35 million BTC.
- Spot ETH ETFs: Daily net outflows of $135.7 million; cumulative holdings ~6.71 million ETH.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase (COIN): $318.23, -3.69% pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $32.89, -5.71% pre-market
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): $19.77, -4.58% pre-market
- Core Scientific (CORZ): $21.88, -4.45% pre-market
Key Takeaways
Overall, the crypto market faces persistent downside pressure, with DeFi losses, macro headwinds, and risk-off sentiment weighing on traders. However, privacy-focused assets like ZEC, DCR, and DASH are providing potential refuge for those seeking to hedge against volatility. Traders are advised to monitor derivatives positioning, stablecoin risks, and ETF flows as indicators of market sentiment in the coming days.
